Here’s a surefire way to start an argument: Suggest that the housing market has reached bottom. While the near-term national outlook is still rather grim, there are signs that the overbuilding and speculative pricing that inflated the national housing bubble are working their way through the system. In October 2005, near the peak of the boom, the median sales price for a U.S. home reached 7.3 times per capita income; by this May it had fallen to 5.7, in line with historical norms. Nationally, the rate of decline in sales is slowing, and in some regions, including Raleigh, NC, sales numbers have actually perked up.
National sales figures that get so much attention are brought down by boom-and-bust markets like Las Vegas, Miami and Phoenix but if hard-hit states like California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida are taken out of the statistical mix, the picture is much more promising. Recent studies show that at least 65 percent of the nation’s 386 metro areas have a greater than a 90 percent chance of seeing higher prices over the next two years. What’s more, the government’s sweeping bailout of the financial sector could boost the housing market by making borrowing easier for buyers.
The publication “Smart Money” dug into those numbers as well as other forecasts and analysis to determine which markets are in the best shape for a rebound and also talked with housing experts to learn which kinds of neighborhoods and suburbs are thriving. Their search identified 25 metropolitan areas that look particularly promising, and of the “seven best-looking markets,” the Raleigh area once again has taken the spotlight.
The Raleigh/Durham area seems to have gotten a free pass where the housing slump is concerned. Prices have been buoyed by job growth in the Research Triangle and total sales in the first quarter of this year were the fifth highest on record. In some cities, suburbanites stung by gas prices are moving downtown in favor of walkable neighborhoods. Not in Raleigh. “People move here to get away from that type of living,” says local market analyst Stacey Anfindsen, only partly in jest. Although downtown Raleigh has added hundreds of condos and lofts, the real growth has come in suburbs like Cary, Morrisville and Apex, all on the western side of Raleigh, where home prices have risen steadily.
I recorded a voiceover for the current Coldwell Banker/Howard Perry and Walston radio commercial a couple of months ago. It read, “The real estate market is a lot like a weather forecast…it’s doesn’t matter unless it’s local.” The majority of news reports focus on the national real estate market which does not exist. There is no “national market,” only an average of trends taken from individual markets all across the country. Even our local media, in particular, the Raleigh “News And Observer” can’t figure that one out. Bad news may sell newspapers and get Television ratings but in the end, the consumer suffers through misinformation and the economic fears that are a subsequent result. It’s good to see that “Smart Money” has made the wise choice to recognize the positive and place their emphasis on relevant facts rather than negative generalities.
If you would like some specifics on your particular neighborhood, feel free to contact us at www.HomeSearchRALEIGH.com or www.FreemanDavisHomeTeam.com. As always, we’ll give you the true story (be it good news or bad) and our goal is to offer you all the facts necessary for you to make a good decision.
By the way, of the seven brightest markets, where are the other six?
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Seattle
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Des Moines
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Philadelphia
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Denver
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Birmingham, Ala.
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Salt Lake City